Greek Default not Priced into Euro

Published on: 2011-09-14 07:35:06

As we approach increasing probability of a Greek default with one year Greek bonds at over 100% and two year at over 70%, people are starting to wonder if the current price of the Euro is already accounting for a default. Karpowitz of Commerzbank, a currency analyst tends to think not. And one of the reasons is there aren't a lot of places to go for safe havens. Switzerland has put a ceiling on their currency to the Euro, and the Bank of Japan seems ready to make another move. He thinks a contagion that just involved Greece, Portugal and Ireland would be managable, but if you start involving Italy and Spain, the possibility of a complete collapse of the Euro may loom.

 

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