Whose Default is it?

Published on: 2011-09-28 23:18:09

As so many eyes have been on Greece, there are a couple of other default risks that people may have overlooked.

On Monday, S&P downgraded Belarus, and expressed concern they may not be able to make their payments. Already in May of this year (60% currency devaluation), Belarus experienced record inflation. They have been able to get some loans from China and some ex-Soviet states. 

It seems that Ukraine may be having trouble paying their debts, and a default may be eminent. A big warning sign is their treasury has stopped the flow of funds to the local level just so they can make their debt payment.

And for Greece having increased their debt by $63 billion in just 3 months, it seems apparent they are moving backwards, not forwards, making the likelihood of continuing loans from the EuroZone less likely. Most economists seem to agree there will be a default. Now it is a matter of how messy it will get and if it will bring the dreaded "contagion" where other EuroZone nations or banks are brought to the brink of default as well.

Volatile times. Interestingly, in France the Socialist Party won control of the legislature for the first time since 1958. We may be seeing the pendulum starting to swing the other way politically as governments face increasing pressure to regulate investors and decrease the volatility. And of course several countries like Spain and Italy have now banned short trading positions.

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