Wisdom of Crowds and Overconfidence in False Beliefs

Published on: 2011-05-21 21:38:08

 

Here is an interesting study that demonstrated the negative impact of the influence of others. In the study people were asked to guess the answers to questions. Some of the respondents were given monetary reward for accurate answers. Also some of the respondents were told what others had answered before they gave their answer.

The results showed that people became “dumber” when they were told the answers that others had given. While it doesn’t surprise me, I think it is important we recognize this possibility in our politics, as well as in our susceptibility to being influenced.

Another interesting aspect was that not only was there a decrease in accuracy, but there was also a smaller range of answers. It’s much easier for people, once provided with a possible answer, to simply select that answer rather than coming up with their own answer.

If you are interested in reading more about this subject, you can read about James Surowiecki and the Wisdom of Crowds. But let’s leave this on a good note. There is hope! Here are the ingredients (courtesy of Wikipedia) of a “smart” crowd. After all, we all want to be on the “smart” end of things, yes?

Diversity of Opinion - Each person should have private information even if it's just an eccentric interpretation of the known facts

Independence - People's opinions aren't determined by the opinions of those around them.

Decentralization - People are able to specialize and draw on local knowledge.

Aggregation - Some mechanism exists for turning private judgments into a collective

Best Wishes to All!

 

 

 

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